01 / 10
AI systems see everything. They understand almost nothing.
The data exists. The interpretation framework does not.
73%
Stuck at basic segmentation
40%
Revenue from good personalisation
500B
Events/day · Netflix · still no state inference
02 / 10
Four layers. Each one beneath the last.
Drive generates State. State produces Behaviour. Behaviour manifests as Action. AI must infer upward.
Behaviour
Patterns over time
Action
Observable · where AI sits today
03 / 10
Confidence degrades as you go deeper.
Action - 96% fidelity · standard event logging
Behaviour - 82% · temporal aggregation required
State - 70–79% · probabilistic, context-dependent
Drive - longitudinal · weeks to months of data
04 / 10
Four traditions. Never previously connected.
SDT - Drive layer · competence, autonomy, relatedness
Affective Computing - State layer · 70–79% accuracy from interaction data
JITAI Research - Behaviour layer · vulnerability and receptivity windows
Learning Analytics - Action layer · 78–84% dropout prediction
05 / 10
Seven signals. All in your data.
HesitationPause · uncertainty
ThrashingRapid switching · overwhelm
RegressionReturns · consolidation
AccelerationSpeed · boredom or overconfidence
PersistenceContinues after failure · high drive
AvoidanceEarly exit · anxiety
FlowSteady progress · optimal state
06 / 10
Same signal. Different meaning. Context determines which.
A 30-second pause before a complex financial trade is prudence. Before a simple form field it is confusion. Three modifiers: domain, user history, and temporal context. Apply all three before acting.
07 / 10
Netflix. 500B events. Layer 1 only.
When you pause a film, Netflix logs the event. It cannot tell whether the pause was anticipation, confusion, or discomfort. The signals for Layer 3 inference are in the data. The framework to read them is not.
08 / 10
Khan Academy. Mastery tracking. Not mastery understanding.
A student who answers after 45 seconds of hesitation gets the same credit as one who answers in 4 seconds. VanLehn (2011): this gap between AI and human tutoring persists. The AI sees the answer, not the state that produced it.
09 / 10
53 references. Live survey. Open research.
SP Jain EMBA · Applied Research Project. Survey and expert interviews with CX and EdTech practitioners. Full paper always readable - no login, no paywall.
50
References · 4 traditions
10 / 10
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